5 prepared a year and discussed scenarios for the future of the world 'Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds' says the report, was given to Turkey.
In the United States depends on the National Intelligence Directorate collects intelligence organizations within the National Intelligence Council prepared by the 'Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds' report, pending the 2030 best-case scenario, the United States, a world that led the way in Europe and the cooperation of China, the the worst-case scenario among states is shown as the formation of large-scale conflict.
In a report published in the US in 5 years, until 2030, only one in the world 'hegemonic power' Saving the structure can not remain.
In the report, by 2030 the world will shape the 4 'major trends' as 'individual empowerment', 'diffusion of power', 'demographic order' and 'rising food, energy and water view' showing.
Empowerment of individuals, the power of the state from spreading to reverse the rise from the West since 1750, by arranging the weight of Asia in the global economy again, and leading to a new democratic era in the international and domestic level, is located in the stunning effects predicted that half of the world.
According to the report, during the period extending until 2030 how the world would change largely will determine 6 'game changer' items also include
'a global economy prone to crisis management space, increased conflict probability, increase the scope of regional instability, the impact of new technologies, US The role '.
They are also likely to result in 'alternative worlds are listed under the following headings:
' Engine of the disruption, the fusion, the emergence of the gin bottle, an independent state in the world '.
In -2030 predictions, the world waiting for the 'big eğilimler'-
Looking at the details, the first major trends' individual empowerment', the strengthening of the global middle class in the next 15-20 years, the reduction of poverty, mean better health and education conditions. The most important 'major trends' seen as stated could affect all the other trends of this trend.
Second major trend 'is now not a single hegemonic power in the world radiates power, the power of the multi-polar world can be stated in the coalition and replace internetworking.
In this trend, China in 2030, the United States also leaving behind when referring to the world's largest economy may be, the health of the environment in the world economy, traditionally the West too, emerging bulunuluyor in how much foresight will depend on how good the world's economy. In this trend, China, India and Brazil, as well as Turkey, Nigeria, Indonesia, Colombia and South Africa as well as regional actors are expected to become particularly important for the global economy.
In the report, Turkey, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Africa, Mexico will be in the middle tier 'countries are on the rise until 2030, but the majority of these countries due to growth in much of China and India' second-row players' Saving will remain . Yet collectively these countries as well as Europe, Japan and bulunuluyor is predicted to begin to outpace global power by 2030 in the context of Russia.
Also contains the main points in the third major trend of demographic change are as follows: West despite aging, have a young population in developing countries is rising, migration and increasing urbanization.
Increasing food, water and energy bonds tend title in 2030 in the world will increase by around 35-50 per cent of the need for these items, in which in particular places more young people suffering deprivation Saving can lead to conflicts for water and food. Food and regions in Africa and the Middle East who are at most risk of water shortage. But next to it because of the population of China and India have the structure fragile in this regard. Climate change is expressed in this situation will be worsened.
In the report, the 'black swans', referred to as the devastating possible effects of potential extraordinary event that will change the course of history also referring to, among others, was given a severe epidemic and climate change, the rate of world population, the supply is to be seen an increase in the degree to complicate the scenario that could lead to the death of millions in a few months.
The alternative worlds ...-
listed in the report 'alternative worlds' scenario, the worst option 'motor disruption', the best option is 'fusion'.
In the best scenario, the US, Europe and China together to intervene in the conflict in south Asia moves and a truce provide, in addition, the EU, China and Europe, other areas are also finding will collaborate together, he led the major positive changes in bilateral relations the collaboration is expected to lead the world in general in dealing with global problems more broadly.
So this scenario is based on political leadership. Great powers also increasing collaboration with reforms in global multilateral institutions between and is expected to be changes in the direction of more inclusiveness. In addition, emerging economies also continues to grow fast in this scenario, the world economy is showing improvement in all areas.
In the best scenario also, the rise of the middle class, urbanization, envisions improved health services and the use of technology. Decreasing violent terrorism, cyber terrorism risk is increasing.
In the report, as a positive scenario that could improve global stability, 'one has realized a democratic reform in China or Iran ordered.
The worst-case scenario-: ...- conflict
if the worst case scenario is housed within large-scale conflict between states. As internal factors may lie behind it returned to the US and EU global leadership not interested in showing. However, due to the world's current position and the global economic order and bonds to be given such a scenario is not likely.
'Genie out of the bottle' scenario of the 'excesses' contains a scenario. In this scenario, it has the option of increasing inequality increasing political and social tensions in many countries. In this scenario, the winners and losers are sharply divided the US, gained energy independence, continues to remain the leading power. However, in this scenario the US, no longer any security threat 'global police' not trying to play the role. Also, in this scenario, there is the possibility of an increased risk of conflict between the major powers.
'Non-State-world' scenario, non-state entities, multinational companies, academic institutions and wealthy individuals, take the lead in tackling global challenges. In the United States depends on the National Intelligence Directorate collects intelligence organizations within the National Intelligence Council prepared, "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds 'report for the future' bottle to go gin 'scenario,' Kurdistan's rise would be a blow to Turkey's integrity and this increases the risk of a major conflict in the surrounding neighborhood. Middle boundaries redrawn with Kurdistan emerging 'expression took place.
National Intelligence Council adviser and lead author of the report Mathew Burrows, 'This is not a likely scenario, "he said.
In the report, Turkey's 2030 Nigeria, Indonesia, Colombia and is stated as regional powers such as South Africa is expected to become important for the global economy.
Turkey, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Africa, the countries of the middle layer, such as Mexico will now rise until 2030, but due to growth in many of China and India highlighted in the report will continue to remain as a second-line players in many of these countries, however, the collective of these countries in Europe, Japan and bulunuluyor is predicted to begin to outpace global power by 2030 in the context of Russia.
On the other hand, the report also briefly refers to Turkey in order demographics section. Here, the Southeastern Anatolia Region Kurdish was stated that the population was 4 of falling children per woman, countries' minorities of having high fertility and population growth in this way, it is stated that creates anxiety in the political order.
In terms of workforce Besides, the sharp decline in the birth rate and young population in Turkey was seen to fall at least a specified rate until 2030. Therefore, young population dwindling Turkey, Brazil and countries like China, sub-Saharan voiced will attract young immigrants from lower-income regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia.
-'Ortadog boundaries çizilebilir'- again
in the section dealing with Iran's nuclear capacity, "Turkey's possible nuclear Iran could give himself upon entering the NATO defense system or into the quest for nuclear capability 'bulunuluyor review.
The report, in the section dealing with the various scenarios for the future of Turkey's name, 'genie out of the bottle' goes under the hood.
Outlining the possible worst-case scenarios about the world's major powers and of the substance of the statements on this topic under the scenario, 'Kurdistan's rise would be a blow to Turkey's integrity, and this increases the risk of a major conflict in the surrounding neighborhood' is used.
Besides, still on a table for scenarios in the same title 'regional stability' substance 'Middle East redrawn borders with Kurdistan emerging' statement reads.
-'Muhtemel scenario değil'-
Washington, DC, National Press Club in reporting about the briefing that the National Intelligence Council adviser and lead author of the report Mathew Burrows, in the report, 'the bottle to go gin' used in scenario context, 'Kurdistan The rise of Turkey's integrity would be a blow, and this increases the risk of a major conflict with the surrounding neighbors' answered the question about the statement.
Indicating that it's not a likely scenario Burrows, especially in light of the developments in Syria, the issues they were concerned about the Middle East said that one possible division.
Burrows Syria on a possible division, stating that it could spread to Iraq, of course, that such a thing in Turkey and did not want to many other countries in the region, therefore, stressed that interest will make the future combination of powers to happen and collaboration.
However, there is a planning document of the report touches on Burrows' What we're trying to do is to sort out some of the worst-case scenario for this case and of course the worst case scenario for the Middle East. We should be confident that happen, "he said.
-'Türki model olabilir'-
Burrows, questions about the role of Turkey in the international system responded.
The report, "the middle-tier 'given among the countries, Turkey is also Indonesia as among them, Colombia, in the international arena of countries such as Brazil increasingly Burrows stating that plays an increasing role, India, is mentioned frequently from countries like China, but you get the world beyond, G20 or G20, stating that there is a much wider international system, "Turkey is playing an increasingly important role in this sense," he said.
Burrows surrounding the Arab world geography in the Middle East, Turkey, Iran, countries such as Israel, the region's how to have a much larger role in the potential context in which shaped attract attention, 'Of course, Turkey, the other being flourish in the Middle East with a very successful democracy and economic growth on a large scale It could be a model for democracy. I predict this role for Turkey, 'he said.
On a question about Turkey's EU membership Burrows, the report expressed that they make a call on Turkey's EU membership, however, react to the expansion of the EU public opinion was expressed that there's a very strong current.
This situation could create one of the obstacles to Turkey's EU membership until Mathew Burrows, but the executive level, a very strong interest in the continuation of these negotiations still ongoing, he said.
In the United States depends on the National Intelligence Directorate collects intelligence organizations within the National Intelligence Council prepared by the 'Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds' report, pending the 2030 best-case scenario, the United States, a world that led the way in Europe and the cooperation of China, the the worst-case scenario among states is shown as the formation of large-scale conflict.
In a report published in the US in 5 years, until 2030, only one in the world 'hegemonic power' Saving the structure can not remain.
In the report, by 2030 the world will shape the 4 'major trends' as 'individual empowerment', 'diffusion of power', 'demographic order' and 'rising food, energy and water view' showing.
Empowerment of individuals, the power of the state from spreading to reverse the rise from the West since 1750, by arranging the weight of Asia in the global economy again, and leading to a new democratic era in the international and domestic level, is located in the stunning effects predicted that half of the world.
According to the report, during the period extending until 2030 how the world would change largely will determine 6 'game changer' items also include
'a global economy prone to crisis management space, increased conflict probability, increase the scope of regional instability, the impact of new technologies, US The role '.
They are also likely to result in 'alternative worlds are listed under the following headings:
' Engine of the disruption, the fusion, the emergence of the gin bottle, an independent state in the world '.
In -2030 predictions, the world waiting for the 'big eğilimler'-
Looking at the details, the first major trends' individual empowerment', the strengthening of the global middle class in the next 15-20 years, the reduction of poverty, mean better health and education conditions. The most important 'major trends' seen as stated could affect all the other trends of this trend.
Second major trend 'is now not a single hegemonic power in the world radiates power, the power of the multi-polar world can be stated in the coalition and replace internetworking.
In this trend, China in 2030, the United States also leaving behind when referring to the world's largest economy may be, the health of the environment in the world economy, traditionally the West too, emerging bulunuluyor in how much foresight will depend on how good the world's economy. In this trend, China, India and Brazil, as well as Turkey, Nigeria, Indonesia, Colombia and South Africa as well as regional actors are expected to become particularly important for the global economy.
In the report, Turkey, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Africa, Mexico will be in the middle tier 'countries are on the rise until 2030, but the majority of these countries due to growth in much of China and India' second-row players' Saving will remain . Yet collectively these countries as well as Europe, Japan and bulunuluyor is predicted to begin to outpace global power by 2030 in the context of Russia.
Also contains the main points in the third major trend of demographic change are as follows: West despite aging, have a young population in developing countries is rising, migration and increasing urbanization.
Increasing food, water and energy bonds tend title in 2030 in the world will increase by around 35-50 per cent of the need for these items, in which in particular places more young people suffering deprivation Saving can lead to conflicts for water and food. Food and regions in Africa and the Middle East who are at most risk of water shortage. But next to it because of the population of China and India have the structure fragile in this regard. Climate change is expressed in this situation will be worsened.
In the report, the 'black swans', referred to as the devastating possible effects of potential extraordinary event that will change the course of history also referring to, among others, was given a severe epidemic and climate change, the rate of world population, the supply is to be seen an increase in the degree to complicate the scenario that could lead to the death of millions in a few months.
The alternative worlds ...-
listed in the report 'alternative worlds' scenario, the worst option 'motor disruption', the best option is 'fusion'.
In the best scenario, the US, Europe and China together to intervene in the conflict in south Asia moves and a truce provide, in addition, the EU, China and Europe, other areas are also finding will collaborate together, he led the major positive changes in bilateral relations the collaboration is expected to lead the world in general in dealing with global problems more broadly.
So this scenario is based on political leadership. Great powers also increasing collaboration with reforms in global multilateral institutions between and is expected to be changes in the direction of more inclusiveness. In addition, emerging economies also continues to grow fast in this scenario, the world economy is showing improvement in all areas.
In the best scenario also, the rise of the middle class, urbanization, envisions improved health services and the use of technology. Decreasing violent terrorism, cyber terrorism risk is increasing.
In the report, as a positive scenario that could improve global stability, 'one has realized a democratic reform in China or Iran ordered.
The worst-case scenario-: ...- conflict
if the worst case scenario is housed within large-scale conflict between states. As internal factors may lie behind it returned to the US and EU global leadership not interested in showing. However, due to the world's current position and the global economic order and bonds to be given such a scenario is not likely.
'Genie out of the bottle' scenario of the 'excesses' contains a scenario. In this scenario, it has the option of increasing inequality increasing political and social tensions in many countries. In this scenario, the winners and losers are sharply divided the US, gained energy independence, continues to remain the leading power. However, in this scenario the US, no longer any security threat 'global police' not trying to play the role. Also, in this scenario, there is the possibility of an increased risk of conflict between the major powers.
'Non-State-world' scenario, non-state entities, multinational companies, academic institutions and wealthy individuals, take the lead in tackling global challenges. In the United States depends on the National Intelligence Directorate collects intelligence organizations within the National Intelligence Council prepared, "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds 'report for the future' bottle to go gin 'scenario,' Kurdistan's rise would be a blow to Turkey's integrity and this increases the risk of a major conflict in the surrounding neighborhood. Middle boundaries redrawn with Kurdistan emerging 'expression took place.
National Intelligence Council adviser and lead author of the report Mathew Burrows, 'This is not a likely scenario, "he said.
In the report, Turkey's 2030 Nigeria, Indonesia, Colombia and is stated as regional powers such as South Africa is expected to become important for the global economy.
Turkey, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Africa, the countries of the middle layer, such as Mexico will now rise until 2030, but due to growth in many of China and India highlighted in the report will continue to remain as a second-line players in many of these countries, however, the collective of these countries in Europe, Japan and bulunuluyor is predicted to begin to outpace global power by 2030 in the context of Russia.
On the other hand, the report also briefly refers to Turkey in order demographics section. Here, the Southeastern Anatolia Region Kurdish was stated that the population was 4 of falling children per woman, countries' minorities of having high fertility and population growth in this way, it is stated that creates anxiety in the political order.
In terms of workforce Besides, the sharp decline in the birth rate and young population in Turkey was seen to fall at least a specified rate until 2030. Therefore, young population dwindling Turkey, Brazil and countries like China, sub-Saharan voiced will attract young immigrants from lower-income regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia.
-'Ortadog boundaries çizilebilir'- again
in the section dealing with Iran's nuclear capacity, "Turkey's possible nuclear Iran could give himself upon entering the NATO defense system or into the quest for nuclear capability 'bulunuluyor review.
The report, in the section dealing with the various scenarios for the future of Turkey's name, 'genie out of the bottle' goes under the hood.
Outlining the possible worst-case scenarios about the world's major powers and of the substance of the statements on this topic under the scenario, 'Kurdistan's rise would be a blow to Turkey's integrity, and this increases the risk of a major conflict in the surrounding neighborhood' is used.
Besides, still on a table for scenarios in the same title 'regional stability' substance 'Middle East redrawn borders with Kurdistan emerging' statement reads.
-'Muhtemel scenario değil'-
Washington, DC, National Press Club in reporting about the briefing that the National Intelligence Council adviser and lead author of the report Mathew Burrows, in the report, 'the bottle to go gin' used in scenario context, 'Kurdistan The rise of Turkey's integrity would be a blow, and this increases the risk of a major conflict with the surrounding neighbors' answered the question about the statement.
Indicating that it's not a likely scenario Burrows, especially in light of the developments in Syria, the issues they were concerned about the Middle East said that one possible division.
Burrows Syria on a possible division, stating that it could spread to Iraq, of course, that such a thing in Turkey and did not want to many other countries in the region, therefore, stressed that interest will make the future combination of powers to happen and collaboration.
However, there is a planning document of the report touches on Burrows' What we're trying to do is to sort out some of the worst-case scenario for this case and of course the worst case scenario for the Middle East. We should be confident that happen, "he said.
-'Türki model olabilir'-
Burrows, questions about the role of Turkey in the international system responded.
The report, "the middle-tier 'given among the countries, Turkey is also Indonesia as among them, Colombia, in the international arena of countries such as Brazil increasingly Burrows stating that plays an increasing role, India, is mentioned frequently from countries like China, but you get the world beyond, G20 or G20, stating that there is a much wider international system, "Turkey is playing an increasingly important role in this sense," he said.
Burrows surrounding the Arab world geography in the Middle East, Turkey, Iran, countries such as Israel, the region's how to have a much larger role in the potential context in which shaped attract attention, 'Of course, Turkey, the other being flourish in the Middle East with a very successful democracy and economic growth on a large scale It could be a model for democracy. I predict this role for Turkey, 'he said.
On a question about Turkey's EU membership Burrows, the report expressed that they make a call on Turkey's EU membership, however, react to the expansion of the EU public opinion was expressed that there's a very strong current.
This situation could create one of the obstacles to Turkey's EU membership until Mathew Burrows, but the executive level, a very strong interest in the continuation of these negotiations still ongoing, he said.